According to a recent poll, Indian Americans have considerable worries regarding Trump’s second term presidency and its impact on US-India relations, despite being hopeful about the future of India. The 2024 Indian-American Survey done in October of this year by the YouGov and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, aimed to analyze the views of Indian Americans after undergoing two unprecedented elections held in India and the United States last year and between the changes in the bilateral relations between the two countries.
Tensions rose recently with the Adani indictment, an Indian backed assassination plot on US soil, and a US attempt to extradite an Indian national. Considering that over 5 million residents of Indian origin reside in the US, we sought to answer questions pertaining to: What is Indian Americans’ perception of Biden’s handling of US-India relations? Is he viewed as better than Trump? What do they think will happen in India after the 2024 elections?
Overall, 1206 IA’s responded and key insights show that IA’s gave more favorable ratings to Biden’s handling of India relations compared to Trump’s first term. Interestingly, Harris Administration was rated higher on bilateral ties compared to Trump’s second term. There was a partisan gap: 66% of IA Republican’s believe Trump’s presidency was beneficial for US- India relations. Only 8% of democrat voters agreed. On the other hand, 50% of IA democrats voted for Biden versus 15% of republicans, which shows the usual democratic preference.
The respondents tended to reveal a gap in the awareness in context of the supposed assassination plot, which comes as no surprise as only half of them seemed to know about it. An October event included a former officer India’s intelligence disputing an attempt of assassination of an American based Khalistan activist named Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. This event was important because for the first time, it placed the Indian government squarely in the middle of a claimed violent act against a rebel dissident beyond its borders. Although, India’s willingness to assist US inquiries as stated in the survey was received with skepticism by the majority respondents as they believed that India would most certainly be in the wrong if the situation was reversed, which caused their anger towards the US.
The paralysis of the respondents showed an even larger gap when it comes to the conflict between Israel and Palestine, with a larger fraction of Democrats sympathizing with the plight of Palestinians as compared to Republicans who sided more with Israel. Approximately 40% noted that they were worried that Biden was too pro-Israel.
Concerns over US – India relations aside, 47% of Indian Americans believe India is progressing in the right direction, a 10-point increase from four years ago. Their overall approval rating is proportionate to their view on Prime Minister Modi’s performances. Furthermore, Indian citizens whose votes contributed to Modi’s party losing the majority claimed that the elections were more democratic than previous elections.
Although the survey reveals that most Indian Americans tend to view India as a burgeoning country and support Modi, the same survey points towards a striking inertia regarding an important domestic political issue, the purported assassination attempt. Milan Vaishnav, one of the study authors, noted, “This gap in perception may be indicative of apathy, but it may also suggest selective engagement with India, rather than disinterest.”
According to Vaishnav’s findings, however, these respondents are likely to express liberal views regarding American policies and conservative views regarding India. Such relationship between lived experience and political identity is of interest as it illustrates the complexity of adopting a single narrative.
There are even more contradictions when it comes to attitudes towards Trump –while Indian Americans seem to be more sceptical of Trump, they are generally pro Biden and Harris when it comes to US-India relations. Still, they continue to heavily endorse Modi. Such contradictions beg the question of their relation to and knowledge about the political developments in either country.
To sum up, the Indian American community, as characterized by the survey, is marked by selective engagement, changing political attitudes, and a myriad of personal experiences that shape their opinions on US-India relations.
