Mayawati once reigned supreme in Uttar Pradesh politics, yet now finds herself struggling to keep her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) relevant. Her recent decision to expel Akash Anand, her nephew and perceived political heir, further deepened BSP’s crisis. At a crucial meeting held in Lucknow Mayawati announced she would no longer nominate Anand as successor – effectively relieving him of all his duties while making clear she will never name another candidate as successor.
Last year, Akash Anand was removed from all positions due to comments during the Lok Sabha election campaign, only to be reinstated shortly afterwards. But now his expulsion appears connected with his allegedly arrogant and self-centered response following his suspension as national coordinator; Mayawati accuses him of acting under influence of Ashok Siddharth who was expelled last month due to attempts to create division within her party.
Mounting Challenges of a BSP
Internal turmoil only compounds BSP’s troubles further, with Mayawati’s inconsistent political approach and her limited presence during elections as well as newer Dalit leaders such as Chandrasekhar Azad reducing its influence. Furthermore, associating with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as part of their perceived “B-Team” has further damaged credibility among opposition voters; without drastic reforms to reconnect with her voter base before 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections this could mark their final demise.
The BSP’s electoral performance has steadily been declining over time. At the last Lok Sabha elections, it failed to secure any seats with its vote share shrinking significantly to 2.3% from 3.7% in 2019. Uttar Pradesh saw this percentage decline even further from 19.4% in 2019 to only 9.5% by 2024 while only 1 seat was won with 13% of votes cast, representing an alarming drop from 2017’s 22% participation.
Mayawati Has Been Receding
She now mostly relies on support from Jatav Dalits, her own community. Even among this demographic, Mayawati’s influence has decreased from 87% in 2017 to 65% by 2022 and 44% during Lok Sabha polls in India. As the BJP courted them since 2014, BSP’s support dropped from 44% in 2017 to 15% by 2024 – showing just how fragile her support truly is.
Many in the opposition contend that Mayawati’s political decisions result from potential Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) actions taken under BJP-led central government, leading to significant damage to BSP among Muslim voters – previously providing over 20% of BSP votes, their Muslim voter share has dropped dramatically over time; now only contributing 5%.
Chandrasekhar Azad’s Rise
Chandrasekhar Azad and his Azad Samaj Party (ASP) has further marginalized the BSP. Azad’s victory in Nagina is particularly telling–Mayawati made her first electoral speech from Bijnor, the same district, back in 1989; BSP finished fourth with only 1.3% in 2024! Furthermore, Akash Anand–once touted as Mayawati’s heir–delivered his inaugural major electoral speech there, making this loss all the more telling.
2027 will see an All or Nothing Battle
Uttar Pradesh elections will be an essential test for Mayawati and her Bharatiya Samaj Party (BSP). She faces intense competition from Chandrasekhar Azad, who is positioning himself as the leading Dalit political voice among Jatav voters. Akhilesh Yadav’s strategy of uniting Pichda (OBCs), Dalits and minorities through Akhilesh Yadav’s UNIFUN bloc led by Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress secured 56% non-Jatav Dalit votes during 2024 elections – making Mayawati even harder to regain ground lost to Chandrasekhar.
Regional Party Dilemma
Many regional parties in India face difficulties with succession and survival, including the BSP. Mayawati may still possess the political will and strategy needed to revive her party and restore its lost legacy, similar to her peers at Janata Dal (United), Biju Jana Dal (BJD), Naveen Patnaik and K Chandrasekhar Rao’s successors; thus making for an uncertain future ahead.
Disclaimer: Please be aware that any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and should be treated as such.
